A NEW HOPE

Obama is finally doing something right, a result of his remarkable decision to keep Gates as Sec-Def. He is listening to Petraeus, the head of Centcom. This week in Afghanistan General McChrystal an SF bred leader who is perfect for this type of WARFARE took over from General McKiernan an Armor officer who was pining for a good old maneuver battle. Here is the stream of consciousness approbation of one Army officer who served as a mentor, advising the Afghan police last year under McKiernan.



McKiernan was a tank officer. Not a good mindset for A-stan. Likes vehicles. Typical response to successful IED attack vs. a US mounted patrol in A-stan was a new mandate for even more vehicles (i.e. targets)in future convoys, and if you didn't have enough vehicles on your base due to maintenance issues to support scheduled patrols, then cancel patrols: a horrible climate, not the US Army/USMC of the Battle of theBulge or Iwo Jima at all, a repudation of the warrior ethos (mission first, never accept defeat, never quit, never leave a fallen comrade).

McKiernan didn't get that, didn't get counterinsurgency (COIN), though he paid it a lot of lip service. Risk averse. Liked making rules. Liked briefings. Liked being briefed. Lusted after PowerPoint slides.(I once received a compliment via e-mail from ISAF/HQ that my slides on how to train a province police swat team were appreciated by "the Boss".. . the SLIDES were appreciated, mind you, no commentary or feedback on the swat team concept (first in the country for regular police), no questions about numbers of arrests or dead terrorists as a result of deploying the swat team.)

McKiernan liked painted rocks, haircuts and parade formations. Hated SF mindset; certainly hated the idea of raggamuffin National Guardsmen going native and living in villages unsupervised. A Cold War, ground maneuver, conventional, NATOcommander.

McChrystal, is a light infantry officer, a paratrooper, a Ranger, a Special Forces officer, a Delta Force-commandingAbu-Musab-al-Zarqawi-killer. Not only not risk averse: likes risk, enjoys risk, thinks what sets Soldiers and Marines apart from other,normal people is a desire to (1) kill bad guys and break their shit and (2) take risks. Will have little tolerance for NATO's bullshit. Will have little tolerance for Obama's bullshit.

Will let Soldiers and Marines do their job: kill bad guys and protect everyone else. Will send US special forces into Pakistan and Iran covertly to do their job. Prediction: US forces will begin to get off of the large bases across the theater (not just in those particular places where the local commander gets COIN) and takes risk. Lots of dismounted patrolling. Lots of living with the locals. Lots of money spread around at grass-roots levels. Less bombing from the air; better bombing from the air.

Yes, more US casualties. BUT: Lots of HUMINT. Lots, lots, lots more AQ andTB casualties. Being a jihadist, an opium trafficker, a corrupt police officer working both sides, etc. in A-stan will become a very dangerous thing; this climate will deter fence-sitters, opportunists and those who fight for the hell of it, separating the hard-core enemy from the common schlubs. Al Qaeda already knows McChrystal by name: he killed Zarqawi,he personally inspected the remains, and they fear him. When the enemy reacts with mortal fear, with terror, to your presence, when he knowsthat you are crazier than he is, then you have the initiative.

McKiernan never had the initiative. No one feared him, not even his own men. McKiernan was a nice guy. McChyrstal is not a nice guy.McChyrstal may be the William Tecumseh Sherman of this war. NATO will complain to Obama that this new commander is too aggressive. In fact you will start to hear that when the Senate confirmation and debate process begins to make McC a 4-star, based on allegations that McChrystal's Rangers were mean to terrorists in Iraq.

Obama will succeed as a wartime commander-in-chief if he resists his own apologetic intincts and tells the Germans and French and Italians and the UN and Doctors without Borders and Karzai to go to hell, suppresses his wildly-inflated self image and lets McChrystal fight the war, while supporting him and otherwise staying out of it. McChrystal will ask for another 30,000 troops, beyond the 21,00 going in now, and a redefinition of ISAF's role in the war.

If Obama supports him in these things, then we will win: in five years, Afghanistan will be secure, ont he road to development and good governance at every level, able to defend itself internally and externally, and a contributer to the war against global Islamist terrorism. If Obama does not supportMcChrystal, then we will loose, and the signpost for that will be a movement for us to withdraw in a Vietnam-style "peace with honor"mode,with Taliban accomodated and appeased with "a province or two" inPakistan. And then both Pakistan and Afghanistan will fall. And then we will really need McKiernan's tanks and bombing missions.

Obama and Gates will take and get credit for this bold move. They should not. Petraeus did this. When we were overseas, as soon as we heard that Petraeus was getting CENTCOM, having ourselves seen how badly the theater was being commanded, we knew that McKiernan's days were numbered, no matter who the President was. Look at the attached picture from last week. The SecDef is in a suit,nothing else. The Afghans are in regular clothing. McKiernan is wearing his body armor. I guarantee that the US officer on the rightwho was not wearing his body armor had his ass chewed out after this fornot showing "good leadership" and concern for "soldier welfare" by wearing all of his gear to this photo op with "the Boss."




I have to concur here, McKiernan didn't want to offend anyone, including the enemy. He handcuffed the most effective, professional military force on the planet, due to career driven risk aversion. GOOD RIDDANCE, now let's kill some bad guys.